Pickup Basketball Elo System

What We Are Trying to Achieve

• Use Elo rating to create balanced 5v5 teams.
• No performance stats required, only win/loss results.
• Ratings stabilize so everyone trends toward a 50% win rate.
• Inspired by chess Elo, adapted for pickup basketball.

Chess Elo Basics

The system predicts win probability from rating differences. Expected score:

Day 0 - Initial Ratings

Curry, LeBron, Giannis, Jokic, Tatum, Durant, Luka, Embiid, Shai, Butler - 1500

Day 1

Teams

Team A: Curry, LeBron, Giannis, Jokic, Tatum

Team B: Durant, Luka, Embiid, Shai, Butler

Ratings After Day 1

Curry, LeBron, Giannis, Jokic, Tatum - 1507

Durant, Luka, Embiid, Shai, Butler - 1493

Day 2

Teams

Team A: Curry, Tatum, Durant, Embiid, Shai

Team B: LeBron, Giannis, Jokic, Luka, Butler

Game Results

B wins, B wins, A wins, B wins, B wins

Ratings After Day 2

Curry, Tatum - 1480

Durant, Embiid, Shai - 1467

LeBron, Giannis, Jokic - 1533

Luka, Butler - 1520

Day 3

Teams

Team A: Curry, LeBron, Luka, Shai, Butler

Team B: Giannis, Jokic, Tatum, Durant, Embiid

Game Results

A, A, A, B, A

Final Ratings After Day 3

Curry - 1505

LeBron - 1558

Giannis - 1509

Jokic - 1509

Tatum - 1456

Durant - 1442

Luka - 1544

Embiid - 1442

Shai - 1492

Butler - 1544

Elo Calculation Method

Step 1 - Team Rating

Team rating = average of all 5 players' ratings

Step 2 - Win Probability

E_A = 1 / (1 + 10 ^ ((R_B - R_A) / 400))

E_B = 1 - E_A

Step 3 - Update Ratings

Delta = K x (Result - ExpectedScore)

Result = 1 for win, 0 for loss

K recommended value = 20

All 5 players share the same Delta

Win Percentage by Rating Difference

Overall Summary